Meat Posts a September Win in a Rollercoaster Q3 Performance

In the U.S. Meat and Deli Performance Review, meat displayed a September victory in an up and down third quarter performance.

With beef starting to lap last year’s substantial price increases, overall meat department inflation moderated to just 0.7%, while prices of eggs, cheese and butter continued to come down.

September meat and poultry inflation was substantially lower than the full-year view. The average price per pound across all meat and poultry increased 0.4% in September versus 3.6% during the latest 52 weeks.

The rate of inflation moderated for all categories with the exceptions of turkey, packaged lunchmeat and smoked ham. Fresh turkey prices rose 11.8% in September, with renewed cases of HPAI. Lamb inflation also remained stubborn, at 9.4% compared with 13.6% in the full-year view.

Assortment: The average number of items per store, per week increased modestly to 457 items per store per week.

Meat Sales

Driven by a strong fresh meat performance, September delivered a win for the meat department. Sales outperformed total store, with dollar sales increasing by 1.5% and volume sales up 1.0%. Growth was substantially higher for fresh meat, with a dollar gain of 2.5% and pound growth of 1.6%. Processed meat lost some growth in dollars and pounds.

The second and third quarters results marked a departure from many quarters of year-over-year growth in both dollars and pounds. The third quarter did slightly better than the second quarter in year-over-year pound sales, but due to a lower rate of inflation, dollar sales remained only slightly above year-ago levels, at +0.4%. The September performance was substantially better.

Total meat pound sales declined in one out of the four September weeks, while beef enjoyed growth all four weeks. Beef pound sales grew by 7.3% the holiday week, but also showed strength during the subsequent everyday demand weeks. Chicken sales were more subdued. While pound sales grew all four September weeks, gains were less than 1% year over year, with the exception of the final week of September.

Fresh Meat Sales by Protein

Following a tough August, September showed renewed momentum for fresh meat. September sales reached $6.3 billion, driven by inflation and demand-driven growth. Beef once more led sales and sales growth, with pound gains of 3.8%, which was far ahead of chicken and pork. Smaller proteins, including turkey, lamb, exotic meats and veal all lost ground. In the full-year view, fresh meat pound sales grew 1.3% compared to the same 52 weeks last year.

Processed Meat

Processed meat sales remained subdued across most categories, but the holiday sales did deliver wins for dinner sausage and hot dogs. Total processed meat pound sales were down 0.4% compared with September 2025, which was substantially better than the 2.3% decline in the full-year view. Smoked ham had the greatest pound pressure, down 6.0% year over year, whereas dinner sausage had the highest growth rate, at +3.6%.

Grinds

Ground beef dominated sales and sales growth. In September, ground beef delivered $1.5 billion in sales, with a 4.2% increase in dollars and 3.4% in pounds. That helped take annual sales to $18.8 billion, up 11.6% over year-ago levels. Ground turkey sales struggled, while ground chicken posted double-digit increases. Pork also had a strong month, while dollar and volume sales were down for ground lamb.

Source: Circana, Integrated Fresh 

—  Anne-Marie Roerink, president, 210 Analytics