Subtle Month-Over-Month Improvement in Baked Good Sales in September

October 26, 2026 | 2 min to read

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In the American Bakers Association U.S. Retail Bakery Performance Review, Inflation Insights: Retail price growth in Circana’s MULO+ universe was stable at 2.2% in the third quarter and September 2026. While a few categories, such as the candy aisle, continued to post accelerated price growth, inflation rates have either slowed or held steady across most retail food and beverage categories. Premium choices, that also feed into higher prices, held as shoppers continued to prioritize quality and health.

Bakery Sales Performance

While down year over year, demand for aisle and perimeter baked goods looked better than it did in August. Bakery dollar sales were decreased by 0.9% year over year in September versus 2.5% in August. Unit sales fell by 2.4% in September versus 4.3% in August. In the 52-week view, dollar growth remained in the plus.

Refrigerated Dough Performance

Refrigerated dough sales reached $234 million in September, up 2.0% in dollars. In the year-to-date view, dollar sales remained down slightly while pound sales were flat.

Perimeter Bakery (including both fixed and random weight)

In the perimeter (fresh) bakery, category performance was somewhat better. Desserts and other sweet baked goods posted positive unit sales, while bread and buns experienced a 0.4% decline in units. The monthly performance was better than that in the total-year view.

Five perimeter baked good categories grew unit sales in August. While off a small base, brownies had another very strong month, with unit gains upwards of % year over year.

In the past year view, perimeter bakery unit sales remained ahead of prior levels across many categories. Bread, buns and rolls and pies were the main exceptions. The September performance was much more mixed.

Both cakes and cookies enjoyed demand growth, while donuts and pastries lost some ground. Given the fresh perimeter bakery’s close connection to holidays, celebrations, and seasonal occasions, category performance can shift substantially throughout the year.