Rise Baking Company Outlines the Bakery Outlook Shaping 2026

Indulgence, convenience, and clean-label expectations define bakery success in year ahead

MINNEAPOLIS — Rise Baking Company, home to some of the most trusted brands in the baking industry, outlined the key consumer behaviors and marketplace dynamics shaping the bakery landscape in 2026. With an expansive portfolio, Rise offers a unique perspective on how evolving expectations are influencing both in-store bakery and foodservice.

“As consumer trends evolve, one thing remains constant: their love for bakery products,” said Michael Docherty, EVP Marketing and R&D at Rise Baking Company. “The year ahead will be defined by premium experiences, everyday indulgences, changes in shopping behaviors, and formats that make it easier for retailers.”

Rise Baking Company’s bakery outlook in 2026 includes:

Indulgence Continues to Anchor Demand

Across both retail and foodservice, consumers continue to gravitate towards bakery items that feel special, satisfying and experiential. Even in a value-conscious economy, indulgence remains a top trend, but expectations are high. To justify a premium purchase, bakery products must deliver outstanding taste first and foremost, supported by craveable textures and eye-catching visual appeal that elevate the overall experience.

Rise sees this demand reflected in products like the Kitchen Sink Cookie, Strawberry and Birthday Cake Crispy Bars, Pistachio Muffins, Mini Bundt Cakes and other premium offerings. These indulgent treats are crafted to showcase nostalgic or trending flavors and layered textures, creating a sensory experience that satisfies cravings.

Size Variety Fuels Frequency, Impulse and Add-On Sales

Shopping behavior continues to evolve, with consumers making more frequent trips while purchasing fewer items per visit. At the same time, shifts toward smaller households, more solo dining and increased calorie consciousness are reshaping how bakery items are selected and consumed. In response, versatility across sizes and formats that meet every occasion has become a major opportunity for both in-store bakeries and foodservice operators.

According to Technomic’s Bakery Consumer Trend Report, impulse remains a leading driver of cookie purchases, closely followed by indulgence. Offering these sweet treats in a range of sizes allows shoppers to satisfy their cravings in a way that feels approachable and portion-appropriate. Fresh-baked, ready-to-enjoy formats further encourage impulse purchases, especially during quick shopping trips.

For both in-store bakeries and foodservice operators, this size versatility opens the door to convenient add-on opportunities, from meal bundles to grab-and-go options at the bakery case or checkout. These strategies help increase check averages while meeting consumers’ desire for a complete experience. Designed with operator needs in mind, Rise’s portfolio supports these moments, from individually wrapped cookies and snack pies for on-the-go occasions to pre-cut cake squares and mini bundt cakes for shareable, take-home enjoyment.

Flavor Innovation + Seasonal Excitement Keeps Bakery Relevant

Flavor innovation remains a powerful traffic driver, and the pace is accelerating. Social media and cultural moments are fueling demand and rapid spikes for trending flavors such as s’mores, cookie butter and pumpkin well beyond traditional seasons.

Limited-time offers (LTOs) give bakeries a flexible way to introduce these flavors and create timely moments for shoppers. Distinctive decorations play a key role in bringing LTOs and seasonal concepts to life, helping products stand out in the case and signal what’s new. These visual cues often drive social media buzz, encourage trial and help position the bakery as a destination for discovery. Familiar flavors paired with a twist through finish, texture or color allow retailers to stay current with trends without abandoning classics.

Rise supports this approach by partnering closely with customers to monitor flavor trends along with ready-to-finish and retail-ready formats that make it easy to rotate LTOs, decorations and seasonal programs efficiently. Whether it’s a Lemon Blueberry Muffin for spring or a refreshed take on a classic like Peach Sugared Plum, these flavors spark excitement and keep shoppers coming back for what’s new.

Labor-Saving Solutions Remain Essential

Operational efficiency remains critical for both in-store bakery and foodservice outlets. Retailers and operators are increasingly relying on solutions that reduce prep time and labor demands while preserving quality and creativity.

For example, Rise’s Fast Pan® technology helps streamline cookie production while still delivering freshness and quality. For cakes, Rise works closely with customers to offer solutions like base-iced layers and pre-cut iced squares. This frees decorators to focus on finishing touches, allowing them to decorate up to 2.5 times more cakes in the same timeframe.

Clean Labels Influence Purchase Decisions

Consumers continue to look for ingredients they understand on the label, as regulatory standards evolve across retail and foodservice. Together, these shifts are pushing transparency to the forefront of purchase decisions. Consumers are also leaning into the trending health and wellness mindset, seeking products that feel more thoughtful and trustworthy without sacrificing taste or quality.

Rise has supported clean label needs for years through products like Simplicious pre-deposited muffins and select icings. Building on that foundation, Rise recently announced a company-wide commitment to offer solutions made with colors from natural sources across its portfolio by the end of 2026. This next step reflects Rise’s support for its customers through the evolving consumer and regulatory expectations, acting as a trusted partner when they’re ready to transition, without sacrificing product performance and consistency bakery operators depend on.

For additional information on Rise Baking Company, visit www.risebakingcompany.com.

About Rise Baking Company
Formed in 2013, Rise Baking Company is a North American bakery manufacturer headquartered in Minneapolis, MN. Rise produces a variety of products for in-store bakeries and foodservice clients, including leading national grocery chains, convenience stores, QSRs, and mass merchandisers. Specializing in cakes, cookies, muffins, icings, pies, and more, Rise brings together some of the most trusted brands in the industry, including Brill, South Coast Baking, Table Talk, Best Maid, Henry & Henry, Bakestone Brothers, among others. Their finest ingredient is their people, who are dedicated to partnering with customers to create special moments. For more information, visit risebakingcompany.com.