Chicago — After record-breaking production last year, apple growers expect another high-performing year, according to a new report released by the U.S. Apple Association (USApple) at the organization’s 129th annual Outlook Conference in Chicago.
USApple’s Industry Outlook 2024* provides the most up-to-date data and analysis on U.S. and global apple production, utilization and trade. Authored by USApple Vice President of Insights and Analytics, Chris Gerlach, the report takes an in-depth look at the trends and forces – from political headwinds to weather events – that shape the U.S. apple industry.
*The Outlook Report is based on recently released United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates. After the presentation of those numbers, USApple members met in-person to discuss current growing conditions to formulate a more up-to-date production estimate. The final USApple 2024/25 crop year forecast is an adjustment of the USDA numbers based on those conversations.
U.S. Production
According to USApple’s analysis, total U.S. apple production for the 2024/25 crop year (CY) will be 259,517,252 bushels. This represents a 10.1% decrease compared to last year’s final production figure.
“Growers from across the U.S. are reporting the crop quality is excellent,” said Gerlach.
These figures are more comprehensive than USDA data, which only look at the top seven apple-producing states. USApple analyzes the production from states outside of the top seven and adds that back into USDA’s figure. It also incorporates feedback from growers based on what they’re seeing in the field every day.
“Despite various challenges, the resilience and dedication of our growers have led to another promising year for apple production,” said Gerlach. “The data we’ve gathered not only highlights the strength of our industry, but also underscores the importance of innovation and adaptability in ensuring a bountiful harvest.”
Varietal Mix
At the varietal level, Gala is expected to retain the top spot with more than 48 million bushels produced, accounting for around 17% of the U.S. apple market. After Gala, rounding out the top five are Red Delicious (12.3%), Granny Smith (10%), Honeycrisp (9.8%) and Fuji (9.4%).
In general, the varieties on the rise include Honeycrisp, Pink Lady/Cripps Pink and Cosmic Crisp®. Fuji, Rome and “other” varieties have remained relatively consistent compared to 2019/20 production volumes. Varieties on the decline include Gala and Red Delicious.
“We still see strong Honeycrisp production, but it’s tempered this year,” said Gerlach. “With volumes aligning more closely with Gala and Red Delicious, we may see production levels stabilize rather than increase dramatically in the future.”
Trade
According to USDA trade data, fresh apple exports totaled 46.4 million bushels in the 2023/24 CY (July to June). This is around 14 million bushels higher than 2022/23 export levels – an astonishing 44% year-over-year increase.
During the same period, fresh apple imports dropped by around one million bushels, a 15% decline. The joint effects of increasing exports and decreasing imports caused the already net positive fresh apple trade balance to grow to more than 42 million bushels.
The surge in fresh apple exports is largely attributed to the abundant domestic supply, competitive pricing abroad, and favorable positive trade policies.
“Thanks to the removal of previously imposed tariffs on our apples, exports to India are up nearly 4,000% year over year. We are optimistic that this critical market will continue to grow in volume and value,” said Gerlach.
Global Production
According to United Nations (UN) data, worldwide apple production surpassed 5 billion bushels for the first time in 2022 (the latest available datapoint). In 2022, China alone was responsible for producing 2.5 billion bushels, around half of the world’s total supply. In 2021, Turkey overtook the U.S. to become the world’s second largest apple producer and maintained that spot in 2022, even widening the gap between us (with 253 million bushels, 5% of world production). The U.S., in the third spot, was credited with 232 million bushels and 4.6% of world production. Rounding out the top five were Poland (4.4%) and India (2.7%).
Newton
Launched in 2022, USApple’s Newton Database & Dashboard is a one-stop-shop for apple-related statistics. Newton consolidates data from USApple and multiple USDA sources in to one place giving users up-to-date information on apple production, utilization, trade, prices, storages, movement, economic impacts and more. This unique USApple member benefit gives users the ability to view preset reports or create custom queries for download.
Final USApple Production Forecast, including states
Production levels measured in 42-pound bushels
USApple is the national trade association representing all segments of the apple industry. Members include 36 state and regional apple associations, representing 26,000 apple growers throughout the country and more than 3,700 apple-related companies. Our members collectively grow more than 10 billion pounds of apples a year on average, supporting about 150,000 jobs and generating more than $8 billion in total wages and almost $23 billion in economic activity.
