With the holiday season officially over, we look back at the main developments in US bakery in 2023 and speculate on what to expect in the new year. We see the industry is in better shape now than a year ago, mostly due to lower commodities prices, restored margins, and boosted knowledge of how to navigate a volatile environment. The recent drop in volume remains worrisome and is likely to be the main point of attention for bakeries in the new year. On a positive note, we expect a more stable environment for commodities and limited supply chain constraints in the year ahead that, in addition to improved margins, should create room for promotional activity to restore volumes.
Prices up, volume down
Volume in most bakery retail categories is lower than it was in the previous year. This is somewhat expected, as 2023 was the true post-pandemic year with a fully open economy and no major new Covid variant affecting Americans’ traveling and eating-out routines. Moreover, a sharp increase in prices is likely to have contributed to lower total demanded volumes.
To read the rest of the story, please go to: Rabobank
