Worst-Case Florida Citrus Scenarios Explored

BARTOW – Florida orange production could sink by another two-thirds in the next 10 years if better solutions to the fatal bacterial disease citrus greening don’t arise.

That’s the worst-case scenario presented Tuesday to the Florida Citrus Commission in a new, long-term citrus production forecast by Marisa Zansler, chief economist at the Florida Department of Citrus, and Tom Spreen, emeritus professor of agricultural economics at the University of Florida and a department consultant. The commission is the Citrus Department’s governing board.

Spreen presented three forecasts based on different computer models of the future, including one based on no research breakthroughs on greening and no change in current production trends, such as declines in yield, or the boxes of fruit harvested per tree, and in the shrinking number of trees and commercial grove acres.

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