Northwest Cherry Crop Update: Industry At Top Speed Working To Meet Demand

You never get everything you wish for, but those wishing for a beautiful late season crop of large, dark and extra-sweet cherries to keep their summer sales going are in luck.

As the last of our mid-season shippers wind down their business for the year, the bulk of harvest activity is shifting to the later regions.  Packing lines are running around the clock as our industry gears up to finish the season with strong promotable volume for the next several weeks.

2018 Shipped Crop to Date (in 20-pound box equivalents) 19,473,061 million boxes

As discussed in previous updates, June came in slightly heavier than the 9 million boxes projected.  At this point, daily shipments confirm the general shape of our crop curve and make that information perhaps more valuable than our general total box estimates.  Over the past week we've talked with a large number of our growers and shippers, and collectively they expect to see strong volume through the end of the month of July and into August, allowing for promotable late season opportunities.

Even last year's record-setting, early season pace doesn't hold up compared to the strong, early start we saw to this season.  In the chart above of aggregated daily shipments from the Northwest, you can see that while the 2018 crop curve bears a similarity to how the 2014 and 2017 crops unfolded, it produced a lot more volume in June and through the early peak days.  Below is the same chart with 2014 removed to allow a clearer year-over-year comparison.

Since July 1st, the Northwest cherry industry has maintained an average of 529,491 boxes (20-pound) shipped per day, which has increased by a daily average of 9,000 boxes since this time last week.  Yesterday, the 17th of July, was the 30th day in a row of shipments since we first shipped more than a half-million boxes of cherries in a day this season.  The daily average for that 30-day period is 561,422 boxes daily. 

In the past, we've reported on the number of days in row that our collective industry shipments exceeded 500,000 boxes on average.  Sundays typically see lower shipment volumes than the other 6 days, so an average is a fair calculation of the overall pace of the industry.  Our several days of exceptionally high volumes in June, however, make the count for this year a bit misleading.  By the traditional math, yesterday (the 17th) was the 39th day in a row feeding into that cumulative daily (>500K) average.  But working backwards, that string of daily averages takes us all the way back to the 8th day of shipping this season, when shipments for the day totaled 216,000 boxes.  No matter the math though, I think we can agree that it's a lot of fruit.  Likewise, many shippers continue to run double shifts just to keep up with the demand for the especially dark, extra sweet late-season cherries our industry is shipping right now.

While the last shipping date may be as hard to nail down as the first, we can project a few things based on how our industry has progressed through the growing regions, the over-arching summer weather patterns, and direct feedback from the invaluable members of our crop estimate field team. 

From this point forward, we will see a continued strong push of volume by our industry to support retail programs through the end of July and into early August at least.  Consumers have gotten a taste for sweet cherries this season, and our projections continue to show late season fruit available to support end of summer promotions.  We're in the peak of the season now, but the fresh cherry opportunity won't last long.  Connect with your packer/shipper contacts today to ensure your chance to offer a few of those longest-hanging late season cherries to your customers.

The U.S. Market Continues to Lead The Way!  The U.S. grocery retail industry is perhaps one of the most competitive in the world.  And when the summer rolls around, their produce departments become key in the overall health of their companies.  So when a group of just over 2,000 growers in one corner of the country can say their fruit is on ad in more stores than any other for the third week in a row, then that's really saying something.  Combined with Rainiers, there are (that we can track)23,568 cherry ads circulating the United States this week, down a bit each of the past two weeks from the 4th of July high.

The yellow cherry crop is winding down for the season, but it hasn't stopped yet in our higher elevation orchards and latest districts.  We're still shipping solid daily volume, and obviously will exceed our pre-season estimate as the charts below illustrate.  The fruit quality has been exceptional this season, and solid demand worldwide has kept the light sweet/yellow cherry harvest moving.

With the second peak upon us, our media programs and promotions have narrowed in on the key to late season sales: letting customers know that the cherry season will soon be over.  In-store radio ads, circular messaging, dietitian/nutritionist programs and retailer social media programs are all shifting over to "Buy Now, Freeze Now" or "Rinse, Pack, Freeze" messaging within the retail channel.  Over the past few winters, the NWCG has been building and promoting holiday and winter recipes to encourage use of our Northwest sweet cherries throughout the off-season.  By encouraging shoppers to buy our fresh cherries now for their stated health benefits, while seeding the idea of healthy, cold-weather treats to come, we're lighting up a pathway to purchase for late season sales.

But that's not to say that every message is for the future.  For the past several weeks, our office has averaged at least 50 media shipments of cherries a week to influencers around the country.  Aside from our own recipes and promotions, their work…like those featured below and elsewhere in this email…adds to the sudden explosion of cherry imagery and consumer messaging that we leverage to highlight the seasonality of our crop.

Customers throughout the world are driven to buy cherries, more often than not, based on the appearance of the cherries on display.  Fortunately, size and color are premium this season.  If you need help promoting that message, contact your Northwest Cherries representative today.

Source: The Northwest Cherry Growers