US import tariffs could significantly raise retail prices for tropical fruits and some seasonal fruits, while impacting the competitiveness of the US tree nut industry.
Trade liberalization, regional specialization, and year-round demand have transformed US agricultural trade over the past three decades. The US now faces increasing trade deficits in horticultural products and sugar, while maintaining surpluses in cereals, grains, oilseeds, and dairy. In recent years, the US agricultural trade balance has shifted from a historical surplus to a deficit.
US horticultural trade illustrates the economic theory of specialization and trade. Due to its comparative advantages, the US has a trade surplus in tree nuts like almonds, pistachios, and walnuts. Conversely, it relies on imports for fresh fruits, vegetables, flowers, ornamentals, and other products where its trading partners have climate and labor-cost advantages.
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