Fresh fruit availability, production, and imports are increasing. However, rather than seeing increased supply lead to depressed prices, strong consumer demand appears to be supporting healthy growth in the prices of fruit commodities as availability grows, according to ERS’s annual update of the Fruit and Tree Nut Yearbook.
Decade averages show fresh fruit per capita availability increased by 21 percent over the past 40 years, from around 90 pounds in the 1980s to 110 pounds between 2000 and 2016. The opposite trend is seen in processed fruit and fruit-for-juice per capita availability, which has slowly declined over the decades. Since their relative peaks in the 1980s, availabilities for both processed fruit and fruit for juice have declined approximately 26 percent, to 29 and 88 pounds per person, respectively.
Domestic juice, processed, and even fresh-citrus production has been steady or slightly trending down since the 1980s. The growth through the mid-1990s was mainly driven by oranges for processing, traditionally around 50 percent, but falling to 35-40 percent in the most recent years. Citrus bearing acreage, mainly for processing, has been declining in Florida (focused mostly on the citrus processing sector) due to disease pressure (most notably citrus greening) and hurricane impacts. Over the same period, domestic production of fresh fruits, primarily driven by non-citrus production, has been modestly increasing, suggesting that the market may be shifting from processed to fresh preparations. Citrus bearing acres are also declining in California, which dominates U.S. fresh market citrus production, where some producers are switching to higher value crops, including tree nuts such as almonds.
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