High in the mountains and tucked away in the cooler spots of the Northwest, you'll find teams of cherry growers hard at work. The last of the Northwest's mid-season growers and shippers are expecting to finish out by the end of the weekend, but volume will be maintained thanks to the late season orchards bearing good crops of absolutely incredible quality fruit.
Like June, it's clear that July will come in slightly heavier than our projected 13 million boxes projected. We still expect to see strong volume through the end of the month of July and into August, allowing for promotable late season opportunities. While the daily volume may decrease by the first of the month, we have spoken with a number of growers who estimate they will pick throughout the month of August. This critical flow of cherries will allow supply for late season sales opportunities and visible merchandising in key impulse sales locations.
Even last year's record-setting, early season pace doesn't hold up compared to the strong, early start we saw to this season. In the chart above of aggregated daily shipments from the Northwest, you can see that while the 2018 crop curve bears a similarity to how the 2014 and 2017 crops unfolded, it produced a lot more volume in June and through the early peak days. Below is the same chart with 2014 removed to allow a clearer year-over-year comparison.
Since July 1st, the Northwest cherry industry has maintained an average of 506,911 boxes (20-pound) shipped per day. However, through Monday the 23rd, our 10-day average was 452,316 boxes per day. When looking at this year's shipments to date in comparison with past seasons, it seems clear that the industry shipping curve will maintain a steady but slowly declining volume curve. However, Monday's shipment total exceeded 500,000 boxes of cherries, so the potential for a few big shipping days still exists.
While the last shipping date may be as hard to nail down as the first, we can project a few things based on how our industry has progressed through the growing regions, the over-arching summer weather patterns, and direct feedback from the invaluable members of our crop estimate field team.
From this point forward, we will see a continued strong push of volume by our industry to support retail programs through the end of July and into early August at least. Consumers have gotten a taste for sweet cherries this season, and our projections continue to show late season fruit available to support end of summer promotions. We're in the peak of the season now, but the fresh cherry opportunity won't last long. Connect with your packer/shipper contacts today to ensure your chance to offer a few of those longest-hanging late season cherries to your customers.
The yellow cherry crop continues to move from small block to small block, resulting in small but sustained shipments from our higher elevation orchards and latest districts. We clearly exceeded our pre-season estimate as the charts below illustrate. The fruit quality has been exceptional this season, and solid demand worldwide has kept the light sweet/yellow cherry harvest moving through the stores.
In-store radio ads, circular messaging, dietitian/nutritionist programs and retailer social media programs are all shifting over to "Buy Now, Freeze Now" or "Rinse, Pack, Freeze" messaging within the retail channel. Over the past few winters, the NWCG has been building and promoting holiday and winter recipes to encourage use of our Northwest sweet cherries throughout the off-season. By encouraging shoppers to buy our fresh cherries now for their stated health benefits, while seeding the idea of healthy, cold-weather treats to come, we're lighting up a pathway to purchase for late season sales.
But that's not to say that every message is for the future. Our office continues to average at least 50 media shipments of cherries a week to influencers around the country. Aside from our own recipes and promotions, their work…like those featured above and elsewhere in this email…adds to the sudden explosion of cherry imagery and consumer messaging that we leverage to highlight the seasonality of our crop.
FACT: Customers who buy cherries spend an average of 28% more on each trip. Are your stores the best place to buy cherries nearby?
Customers throughout the world are driven to buy cherries, more often than not, based on the appearance of the cherries on display. Fortunately, size and color are premium this season. If you need help promoting that message, contact your Northwest Cherries representative today.
Source: The Northwest Cherry Growers
