Global cocoa supplies are headed for the longest production shortfall in more than five decades as chocolate demand surges in Asia.
Cocoa use will top output by about 70,000 metric tons in the 12 months started Oct. 1 and deficits will persist through 2018, a six-year stretch that would be the longest since the data began in 1960, said Laurent Pipitone, head of statistics at the International Cocoa Organization in London. Prices may rally 15 percent to $3,200 a ton by the end of 2014, according to the median of 14 trader estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
Global sales of chocolate confectionary will gain 2.1 percent to a record 7.3 million tons next year, after a 2 percent gain in 2013, estimates Euromonitor International Ltd. Sales in China more than doubled in the past decade, outpacing gains in Western Europe, the biggest consumer. Tighter supplies will mean higher costs for food makers including Nestle SA, Barry Callebaut AG and Lindt & Spruengli AG.
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